TheVoice on: 9 Takeaways from Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business at NYU and the chairman of Roubini Global Economics. Mr. Roubini received a doctorate in international economics at Harvard University. In 2005 he was quoted as saying “home prices are riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy”. Many ignored him back then, today he is a sage. The below are 9 takeaways from his recent article from Forbes,(Stop Asking When The Recession Will End):
- Positive GDP growth may become evident in the second half of ‘09
- Recovery will be closer to U shaped than V or W
- Policy measures such as cash for clunkers will raise real GDP growth in the third quarter of ‘09, this is a temporary boost to growth
- Inventory adjustments and stimulus impact will be over by mid 2010, this may cause a double dip recession.
- Sustained economic recovery must come from private demand
- This is the most severe recession since the 1930’s
- New sources of growth must emerge, until then growth will be below potential for many years
- Productivity has been a leader due to labor cuts and increase labor hours not innovation or productivity investments as it should
- Productivity growth will remain under pressure for the foreseeable future
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Looks like this is going to last for a while……
Roubini wrote another article warning of a double dip recession on FT. Seems he cant make his mind up. “oil, energy and food prices are now rising faster than economic fundamentals warrant, and could be driven higher by excessive liquidity chasing assets and by speculative demand. The global economy could not withstand another contractionary shock if similar speculation drives oil rapidly towards $100 a barrel.
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The dip is coming…..